Research: Divided political parties lose

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A bitter divide spells trouble for a political party.
A bitter divide spells trouble for a political party.
Donald Trump, boisterous reality show star and Republican candidate for president, recently warned of "riots" if he does not secure the party's nomination at the July convention. He has dubbed one opponent, Sen Ted Cruz of Texas, "lying Ted," and more recently insulted Ohio Gov. John Kasich, the sole candidate who is seemingly averse to blood sport.

     For Republicans, it has been a political season of insults and low-level jabs delivered on national television. Beyond that, the remaining candidates have put forth three different approaches to political philosophy and governing. It all makes riveting television, but this year's primary season also has been divisive within the Republican Party, and researchers say that could spell trouble in the general election.
     Divided political parties rarely win presidential elections, according to a study, “National Party Division and Divisive State Primaries in U.S. Presidential Elections, 1948-2012,” led by Paul-Henri Gurian, associate professor of political science at the University of Georgia.
     The study, released March 17 and published in the journal, Political Behavior, examined the impact of divisive primaries on general elections. A case in point: in elections from 1964 through 1984, the divided party lost.
     The 1964 Republican primary pitted Sen. Barry Goldwater of Arizona, who voted against the Civil Rights Act, against Nelson Rockefeller, a moderate Republican and New York governor, who attempted -- without success -- to keep a commitment to civil rights in the Republican platform. Goldwater was the eventual nominee. In the general election, incumbent Lyndon B. Johnson defeated him in a landslide.
    “Divisive state primaries can lead to a 1 [percent] to 2 percent decrease in general election votes in that state,” a university news release explained.   
     The outcome of the recent primary in Georgia is one example: Hillary Clinton, vying for the Democratic nomination, won 71 percent of the vote. On the Republican side, Trump won the state, but with 39 percent of the vote. Cruz and Kasich, along with Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, and Ben Carson, a neurosurgeon, (the last two have since dropped out), divided the rest.
    That splintering could mean lost votes down the line, the research found. As Republican nominee, Trump would lose almost 1 percent of the Georgia vote in the general election.
    National party division can be more damaging, leading to decreases of more than 3 percent nationwide.
    Using the current campaign as another example, as of March 16, Trump had received nearly 40 percent (39.5 percent) of the Republican primary vote. On the Democratic side, Clinton had won nearly 60 percent -- 58.6 percent. 
    If this trend continues throughout the primary season and both candidates win their nominations, “Trump would lose 4.5 percent of the vote in the general election, compared to what he would have received if the national Republican Party was not divided,” the news release said. “Subtracting the percent of the Republican nominee's total popular vote from that of the Democratic nominee and multiplying that by 0.237 indicates how much the Republican nominee is likely to lose in the November election, compared to what would otherwise be expected.”
    Gurian pointed out that in close elections 4 percent can make a difference. Consider these close elections:
  • In 2000, George W. Bush, a Republican, won 47.8 percent of the vote; Al Gore, the Democratic candidate, won roughly 48.3 percent of the vote, according to the Federal Election Commission. (Bush won the presidency after Florida’s electoral votes were awarded to him.)
  • In 2004, Bush was re-elected, winning 50.7 percent of the vote; his Democratic challenger, John Kerry, won 48.3 percent.
  • In 2012, President Barack Obama, Democrat, won with 51 percent of the vote; the challenger, Mitt Romney, won 47 percent.

    Sources:

     Related:

     Insults: Part of the American campaign

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